August 3rd, 2005
Smooth Saudi transition likely
The death Sunday of Saudi Arabia’s King Fahd bin Abdul Aziz has potential to create global instability in price-sensitive oil markets.
But the succession of Fahd’s half brother, Crown Prince Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz, 81, is no surprise: He has acted as de facto king for a decade.
And the political transition now to his full rule is expected to be smooth, with U.S.-Saudi relations remaining strong, experts say.
“I see more of the same,” predicts David Commins, a history professor at Dickinson College in Carlisle, Pa., and author of a coming book, “The Wahabi Mission in Saudi Arabia.” He foresees no “instability that is going to threaten this dynasty.”
The new king is a popular ruler who already introduced some reforms, including a limited democratic election, and worked to strengthen U.S. ties damaged by the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.
“Probably there will be more reforms,” says Mamoun Fandy, a senior fellow in Middle Eastern studies at Rice University’s Baker Institute. “Abdullah is bolder in pushing for them. The very nature of the kingdom is changing, and probably all of them realize that they need the reforms.”
Abdullah named Prince Sultan, 77, as the new crown prince and his future successor. Sultan, a full brother of the late king and the Saudi defense minister, is considered influential among the tribal factions ruling the kingdom.
Fandy, author of “Saudi Arabia and the Politics of Dissent,” describes Sultan as “a real power broker” who “will rejuvenate the legitimacy of the monarchy … a religious man who takes care of the tribal leaders.” He expects Sultan to “make the idea of selling reform easier.”
Internally, Abdullah must “walk a tightrope” among the fundamentalist Wahabi religious establishment — a core supporter of the Saudi royal family — and more technology-savvy youth demanding political and economic reforms, as well as tribal leaders and radical jihadis, according to Mary-Jane Deeb, the U.S. Library of Congress’ Arab world specialist.
He may also face challenges from some fellow royals. For example, Prince Nayef, the country’s interior minister for a quarter-century, is considered suspicious of political reform and less than friendly toward the United States.
The late King Fahd helped to build a strategic relationship with the United States, in part by keeping oil prices relatively stable. Since 2001, Abdullah has concentrated on repairing damage wrought by Saudi involvement in the 9/11 attacks. (Al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden is a Saudi, as were 15 of the 19 hijackers.)
Fandy foresees no reversal: “Really changing relationships with pivotal states like America or England? I don’t see that happening.”
“There is an understanding, on both sides, of the limitations of their world views that constrain them to behave the way they do,” explains Deeb, whose views do not represent the Library of Congress. “The United States understands that Saudi Arabia has the responsibility for Mecca and Medina, the two holy places of Islam. … They realize that, for better or worse, the monarchy has been a very stabilizing force within the region.”
U.S. officials want the new king to produce stable oil prices, democratic reforms and a tougher crackdown on home-grown jihadis. None of that will be easy.
Despite a $100 billion annual windfall from oil revenue, Saudi Arabia faces growing unemployment — some analysts estimate as high as 30 percent — and slums are appearing on the outskirts of cities.
Those economic and social woes, compounded by what some Saudis see as a corrupt, morally bankrupt regime, have encouraged the rise of a new generation of militant jihadis who have carried out terrorist attacks in the kingdom, as well as in Iraq.
The jihadist ideology took root and spread in Saudi Arabia over a generation, finding its legitimacy during the 1980s war against Soviet forces in Afghanistan. “It was not really de-legitimized until 2004, when Saudi forces and police started getting killed in battles with the jihadis,” says Dickinson College’s Commins.
The Saudi royal family has always prided itself on maintaining stability, and that seems likely to continue for now. Several of Abdullah’s sons were trained in the United States and are considered pro-American; Crown Prince Sultan’s son, Prince Bandar, was the Saudi ambassador to Washington for two decades until resigning two weeks ago.
The real political challenge lies ahead, as older leaders give way to a new generation.
Yet a more pressing worry for the monarchy are the Saudis fighting in Iraq.
“For the Saudis, I think that is fine,” says Commins. “They say, ‘Let them go and get blown to bits in Iraq.’ But they have to be worried about when they come back home with more military training.”
Betsy Hiel is a Middle East correspondent for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review.
Source: PittsBurghLive.com